- [b] defense in depth (w/ friction) explained here: [Collections: The Siege of Gondor, Part II: These Beacons are Liiiiiiit](https://acoup.blog/2019/05/17/collections-the-siege-of-gondor-part-ii-these-beacons-are-liiiiiiit/) & also brought up here: [Collections: No Mans Land Part I: The Trench Stalemate](https://acoup.blog/2021/09/17/collections-no-mans-land-part-i-the-trench-stalemate/) - [b] [Tweet](https://twitter.com/i/status/1506066258885763077) by [[Bret Devereaux]] 2022-03-21 So I was listening to the Bulwark pod with [@SykesCharlie](https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie) and [@saletan](https://twitter.com/saletan) and I wanted to clarify for them and others what it means when offensives 'culminate.' @saletan phases it as 'culmination in military terms means you're done...you've accomplished what you can.' And...no? This is an idea that comes - of course - from Clausewitz (drink!) in this case book 7, ch 5. The basic idea is that from the moment the attacker steps off on their attack, they are getting weaker. Lost equipment, personnel, but also growing disorganization (friction). Meanwhile the defender, if not overrun, is pushed back on their supplies and if defending-in-depth to more defensible positions. So the attacker gets weaker over time faster than defenders do. Since attack requires more strength, at some point the balance shifts. That point is the 'culminating' point of an attack - the attacker has lost the strength advantage that allows them to push forward. But 'culmination' is distinct from the end of an offensive or of a war for important reasons - that's why we say 'culminate' and not 'end.' On the one hand, the culmination point rarely comes at the end of the offensive - the attacker may not *know* their offensive has culminated and may continue attacking hoping to break through and make further gains. You can see many, many examples of this in WWI: trench assault launched, initial gains, but then culminates, but the generals thinking one more good push will get them through keep piling in men and end up racking up pointless losses. But an army's offensive culminating also doesn't mean 'they're done.' What it means is they need to stop, reorganize, refuel, resupply, and essentially 'rev up' for the next attack. (with of course the danger that the former defender does this faster and steps off first). In the case in Ukraine, when we say most of the Russian offensive has culminated, what we really mean is it is now clear that RU's drive culminated several days ago and the more recent efforts by RU to push forward getting nowhere shows that to be true. But that doesn't mean RU is done - unless Putin decides they are - it means RU has to stop, and 'rev up' again for another push. Offensives culminate, wars terminate. A war can contain many offensives, the culmination of one doesn't end the war. Given that RU's response to sanctions has been to hunker down, I don't think they think they're done. That gives Ukraine essentially three options. The choice for Ukraine is between: 1/ Negotiated settlement before the next RU offensive. The seems unlikely to me, RU demands are still unacceptable and this would only make sense if UA thought the next offensive would leave them in much worse position. 2/ Step off first - try to forestall the next RU offensive by launching their own first. Unlikely in my mind just because I don't think UA yet has the strength advantage for this. I do think they'll wage raids and spoiling attacks to complicate RU's efforts. 3/ Use the breathing space provided by RU's culmination and renewed 'rev up' process to filter in western arms, train TDU's, dig in on new lines, perhaps try to un-isolate isolated pockets in the north in limited counter-attacks. FWIW, I don't think the Russian 'theory of victory' right now is pure city destruction. As grim as it sounds, for RU, war crimes are a tactic, not a strategy: used against specific cities to try and force their surrender. Still bad, to be clear. But I have to imagine even RU knows that bombing cities isn't going to force capitulation so long as Ukraine has an army in the field that can fight back.